Brexit? A quick poll

[brown dog]

then more than a dozen of very senior British military leaders (Chiefs of staff,Head of the Army etc) have signed a letter warning of increased dangers if UK leaves the EU (mainly security issues-their expert area,and terrorism).

 

I have very considerable regard for our senior military-experienced men,who can make judgements led by reality,and (especially when retired) capable of very insightful and balanced commentary.

 

Well, that's a worryingly naive statement about signatories to a letter orchestrated by Downing Street!

 

With, literally, one or two notable exceptions, the bulk of the chaps who make it to the very top have morphed themselves into quasi-politicians en route and, like flags, will have faced whichever way the wind was blowing to get there. I suspect, most will have signed with one schnebby eye on the House of Lords or on some other sign of favour from the Government of the day.

 

It's notable both that the letter was orchestrated by Downing Street and that it 'somehow' conflates an exit from the EU (which delivers zero defence effect) with the demise of NATO. Umm, 'show workings'.

 

Michael Rose; Former CO 22 SAS, Former Director Special Forces etc. -rather than some former greasy pole climbing uniformed quasi-politician with one eye on the next New Year's Honours list:

 

[Cumbrian 1]

_{The farming subsidy argument is a bit flimsy, plenty of countries in the world operate without farming subsidies, it all comes down to supply and demand. If subsidies were withdrawn we would see a correction in land prices and much larger farms and less farmers.}

 

_{Economies of scale are a key advantage for all businesses most firms find that, as their production output increases, they can achieve lower costs per unit and it is evident in most industries but not farming as the subsidies are keeping a lot of farmers afloat.}

[redding]

Its already been said that subsidies have created a lot of "farmer" millionaires

Getting a subsidy for doing a job is living in a financial dream world, they say if you take the subsidies away they will not be able to make a profit!

If that is the case they ARE NOT making a profit anyway.

Get rid of subsidies regardless of in/out of EU, that way farmers will be on a level playing field, just like the rest of us.

Use subsidy cash to pay nurses a proper wage.

[Will0]

Get rid of subsidies regardless of in/out of EU, that way farmers will be on a level playing field, just like the rest of us.

Use subsidy cash to pay nurses a proper wage.

I agree, but...

The EU subsidy needs to go at the same time, otherwise the domestic market will be flooded with imported wheat that is produced on the continent and subsidised, meaning it's available cheaper.

 

The UK government also get their "modulation" fee off the CAP so they'll also be out of pocket, the farming press is starting to suggest that there will be a simplified and less beaurocratic system put in place (believe it when I see it), so hopefully there will be a smaller state department managing the implementation of the SFP, and it'll merge with the cross compliance.

[Cumbrian 1]

There is a lot of scaremongering in the press, leaving the EU will have zero effect on trade, we already have our own currency, we have lots of trade agreements with other non EU countries so I can not see why we can't continue trading but on our own terms. I think the Germans might want to deal with Britain considering the number of shiny German cars sold here in the UK, the biggest investors in the UK property market is the Middle East followed by the far East and neither will be affected by our exit.

 

The City should thrive as we won't be tied up by European competition laws, firms will flock to do business here with attractive taxes and other exemptions.

 

The UK is one of the greatest countries in the world, I can't help but feel proud when I look at what a small parcel of land has achieved and our continued influence in the world arena, if the UK was so insignificant then why are our European cousins getting their knickers in a twist?

[gbal]

Matt,just reporting a news item- and it's only 2 lines of fact,the other two (mine) are rather general (both senses) regard for very senior military guys-I am aware of your views,mine ar a little less disparaging-and I note some of the top guys are not "orchestrated"-as you well know if my views of such men and the top heavy army structure are naive etc,then I am not alone,in the UK,or even in this conversation. I didnt actually express agreement/not,though it was triggered by the poll mentioned in a previous post-it just was yet another item,broadly anti Brexit on last nights news.

I don't know of course what ' orchestrated ' means-perhaps just 'asked by a Downing Street aid' -I can't imagine there was any co-ertion threatened,and I am in no position to comment on your cynicism about your seniors.Some may well have genuine concerns.

At the risk of further denigration (faux liberal,naive,nationally stereotyped-what cobblers,matt.....time we had another pint,somehow I've misled you -and as for "do I know about extroversion'...that's like me (50 years academic research in personality) asking you if you've heard of Sandhurst...) Maybe best as a PM,since it's personal-though being 'used' in this in/out discussion. but I digress-ad hominem arguments though are dodgy- though I did mention Putin wanting UK out of EU....and US in

....anyhow,the Economist yesterday had a comprehensivel coverage of most of the in/out issues,favouring in,and that included some sensible commentary on Europe,EU,UK,Nato,terrorism and Euro security. I'd have though Europe weaker without the considerable military power of UK,and strategically that suits Putin just fine.

 

Isn't it a bit ....errr 'naive' to just dismiss reasoned argument - granted none on either side can be complete,as the future is not knowable in detail-as 'naive'?

 

g

 

just to chew on,Matt: I support-as does volumes of research -Agreeablesthe 'Big 5" theories of personality-there are universal (nb) dimensions which encompass all/most societies and their individuals. (Extraversion,Openess,Neuroticism,Agreeableness,Conscientiuosness).........

 

This of course means that there is an underlying universality- I've been to France many times,never seen an onion seller-and I did explicitly mention 'characatures' are dodgy-as are 'stereotypes' whether group or national etc. Of course,there are differences on these within most societies,but the differences are pretty much the same between societies and countries-at least in the literate west;only last week I was reading some recet research on remote tribes,wher some but not all the five are found-but no others.

As with language,thought prcesses etc-I am pretty much a universalist-humans are very similar in the essentials,though culture and (lack of) education are powerful too. So no 'berets and onions' please-amusingly enough the only (swiss) Frenchman I know who wore a beret was the great psychologist Piaget-very much a universalist.Buthe didn't sell onions.

OK-nothing much else on this morning,so lets clear the table for the next pint-I note your points about "Britishness'- I think some replies are category errors and/or confuse reference with meaning - defining eg French/any nationality as you do is obviuosly largely true,but I fit the descriptors of "French' every time I go to France (tho not to be fair-a liberal weakness- calling it home.However my son fits all the descriptors and has his home in Switzerland-but he still thinks of himself as British. Not so simples,then?

It matters not (machts nicht-sometimes the swiss speak a sort of german!) BECAUSE these countries have pretty similar values-

the French 'liberte,egaliteand fraternite' resonates pretty widely. That was indeed my basic point-there is probably NO substantial psychological trait that helps define "Britishness"- they all have the same set of traits (big 5) and broadly similar values-how they are expresessed may have a cultural veneer. Burns- the rank is but the guinea stamp,the man's the gold underneath." all god's chilun' " if you wish- but I'm not religious,just know about human evolution,brain structures etc etc. Basically all the same.

 

Liberals incidentally are likewise universalists-each person is an autonomous individual;the states job is to remove any barriers to achieving potential-like prejudice,and environmental disadvantage... I'd be pleased to accept that,and have no idea at all what 'faux liberal' is.

Orwell dealt with it all brilliantly in his "What is a Fascist?" one page essay in 1944-you'd probably be insulted by the suggestion that 'saluting is fascist'-but Orwell blows that kind of nonsense away....the reducton of meaningful words -( fascist=bully Is pretty close,as he says)- to pejoratives,and then just empty swear words. Great stuff-if you are a liberal,less so a pig....

Gilbert &Sulivan parodied the "Britishness' idea in eg HMS Pinafore-the sailor can cut across society and marry the captains daughter " because he is a British"....it's no coincidence either that the antisemitism that H Abrahams encountered was likewise refered to by his singing the same song in "Chariots of Fire".... Send ups of jingoistic beliefs in superiority are well absorbed into satirical commentry- G&S has been widely used from John Betjeman to Monty Python,Private Eye and Yes ,Minister..they all lampoon the idea of any special distinctions (that are admirable)-as does GK Chesterton (it's just unjustified pride,an inflated idea of self worth,entirely unjustified by any virtue or ability,and indicative of 'incredulous simplicity.

Psychologists cal it BIRGing-basking in reflected glory,and pretty close to Mitty-ism.In a nutshell, for anyone trying to defend the notion of some superiority, "there lot is not a happy one'! !

 

Gosh,I haven't sketched out a lecture for a while. Ideally,I'd check what the good ex-military Mikes think....

or agree on...not sure I agree that all ex military are limited politically-unless we all are,but noted.

 

Let's hope for some decent national and European rugby this weekend,lest the fixtures are dropped...:-)

 

ATB

GB

[Artiglio]

We do need to remember that there is not a walk of life that is not in some way affected by subsidies at one level or another. Any business that employ s someone who receives in work benefits is essentially being subsidised , charities that receive tax concessions and goverment grants , social housing all subsidised by the tax payer to some degree or another. As a society its how we've chosen to move forward.

But it all falls apart when you try to placate/protect the people and vested interests of various nation states with different values and standards of living, hence the issues we see today. The whole sustem has become so complex and intertwined that its effectively impossible to change one aspect without leaving another disadvantaged. In a world economy where real growth could be relied upon it was not such a problem , you just threw more money at each issue as it arose. That's no longer possible, tough decisions lie before us all as individuals and as nations.

The brexit referendum is part of the decision making , if we leave other countries will also consider it either as a state or sections of society within those countries, its this that scares the EU elite, I don't really think they care if the UK leaves ( we're hardly the poster boy' of the EU ideal) but losing a nation of our economic and political weight will be both embarrassing and destabilising to the european state project.

[bowji john]

Brief but informed opinion on the affects of Brexit - sans political BS

 

https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/

[gbal]

Brief but informed opinion on the affects of Brexit - sans political BS

 

https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/[/quo

 

BJ- thanks for this,it makes points clearly-for Management Investors ,it's quite a close run thing ,with pros and cons-of course.Norway clearly has a rather bum deal,whether UK could do a Swiss one.....well,it gets awfully complicated-and all the non economic factors come into play too-Swiss aren't much into Nato,for good or not.. and so on....

 

Interesting to compare with yesterday's Economist-much in factual agreement,balance there for "in"-because it takes a wider more encompassing view-eg of European security,which isn't in the Woodford report.

 

Alas,how many of the potential 45 million voters will access anything like these? Most get exposure to the 'Trump'' treatment,easy but queasy if not downright sleazy.

 

Still seems a complex lesser risk type decision,when the fudge is removed.

 

gb

[bowji john]

gbal

 

You are right - most people will not read such dry assessment papers

 

The referendum debate is (an likely to continue to be) more about ya boo than analysis

 

People hold deeply entrenched opinions (including me) and seek comment and 'factoids' to support that position

 

What I find deeply abhorrent is the non-level playing field that this debate continues to be played out in - especially if the economic consequences of either in and out are largely neutral

 

i don't buy into the idea that our security is particularly enhanced through membership the EU - and 28 disparate nations will never be able act as one

 

I was only a middle ranking officer in HM forces (and it was some time ago) but in my experience EU nations (other than France) were never taken very seriously in position papers and war games

 

Current EU shenanigans certainly has an impact on global security but not ,in my opinion, a particularly positive one

[gbal]

BJ,agreed- I think the point was that a 'united-somehow' Europe is less likely to have another internal war,and is better than a completely disparate 28....of course the military power isn't equal,and UK,France have more-as well as considerable 'diplomacy' experience beyond the gun boat sort ! MIght as well have Germany and Italy on side too....

"when it gets complex-look what the baddies want and what the goodies advocate"...

Putin wants UK out,USA wants UK in

 

(Trump perhaps wants to be Pope or god,as he thinks the current incumbents are wrong)-at least we don't have that problem.....with 28 countries voting,rather than just one.) :-)

 

g

[bowji john]

I agree

 

USA want us in and Putin wants us out

 

But neither of them care a jot about the people of UK

 

I am beginning to take the (arguably nonsense) position that a vote to leave would/could result in a rocket up the 'jacksies' of those EU Commission types slithering around the passages of power in Brussels

 

Only then would there be fundamental reform

 

After all - even the USA (who wants a united EU with the UK as a member) doesn't really want the EU that is currently on offer

[bowji john]

Further

 

I don't buy for a microsecond the idea that the EU would not allow a second referendum.

 

The EU already has form for this

[gbal]

bj,maybe the real possibility has already helped-some of the negotiated deals are decidedly non trivial for the beaurocrats....

 

If you will tolerate lets go to lbj/LBJ aka US president- a man who could cut through the political mushroom promotional vigour stuff:

 

" it's better to have the guy in the tent pissing out,than .... "

 

Seems the consensus in the EU.......we get listened too-more perhaps,if there were not moral and practical urgency to sort out the other EU issues... on refugees....for example...

 

They may have form,but have they got the forms (printed) yet?

 

I've just had the Scottish dilemma for several years,and now there might be a rerun..... selling up in Scotland and moving that bit to France is more complicated,even more compromised....where can a pensioner just live quietly these days,and shoot? :-)

[bowji john]

If you find such a place - let me know

 

I keep dreaming of upsticks and buying 'off grid' in Canada - but that is what it is - a dream

[gbal]

Velocity drops in winter?

 

Life is just all ups and downs,ins and outs....swings and roundabouts.

 

Why don't Carlsberg brew an EU ?

[SWShooter]

bj,maybe the real possibility has already helped-some of the negotiated deals are decidedly non trivial for the beaurocrats....

 

If you will tolerate lets go to lbj/LBJ aka US president- a man who could cut through the political mushroom promotional vigour stuff:

 

" it's better to have the guy in the tent pissing out,than .... "

 

Seems the consensus in the EU.......we get listened too-more perhaps,if there were not moral and practical urgency to sort out the other EU issues... on refugees....for example...

 

They may have form,but have they got the forms (printed) yet?

 

I've just had the Scottish dilemma for several years,and now there might be a rerun..... selling up in Scotland and moving that bit to France is more complicated,even more compromised....where can a pensioner just live quietly these days,and shoot? :-)

Aussie or NZ.

[brown dog]

Aussie or NZ.

 

I read the other day that Uruguay is the best place to retire.

(I believe it's a little more 'alles in ordnung' than one might expect in S America (for some reason!))

[bradders]

Everyone thinking about emigrating should F**K off right now and stop spamming/diluting the thread

 

You're either seriously thinking about emigrating (and haven't even looked into it) or are just spouting boLLecks....and I assume the latter

 

So move abroad or STFU

[bowji john]

Not your thread so button it

[SWShooter]

I hear France is nice this time of year

[gbal]

Bradders, I was just trying to lighten it a little,but point taken. Is that word with the asterisks really in the spirit of the forum,or is it just an off thread advert for fashion clothing (FCUK)?

 

Is being in a dilemma about moving to an EU country,and it's shooting situation,really off thread in an in /out of EU thread ?

I'll ask Brown Dog when he gets back from his researches on Uruguay....... :-)

 

I did sell my house in Scotland,but not both of them,so you may be right about my faffing about on this.

 

Perhaps you could help- do they do CSR in France?

 

G

[Chanonry]

I did sell my house in Scotland,but not both of them,so you may be right about my faffing about on this.

 

 

 

Hedge your bets pal. Hard to tell whether we should have a house in North or South Berwick, to use the old vernacular.

[brown dog]

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/thunderer/article4701518.ece

[gbal]

Mon 29 Feb

 

I woke up,smelled the coffee,had my last Swiss choc.

 

Soon,there was another smell.

Something is now rotten in our sovereign state.

 

Set aside the political complexities.

 

Children under 5 treated for the effects of tear gas deployed at the UK border fence.

 

Very rarely am I ashamed to be British,and European.