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The Great Fall of China - FTSE turmoil today


Mauser3006

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I'm not sure I really understand the situation at all! I was under the impression that China, basically owns the US (in terms of debt) - so how the hell they've got to this baffles me ........and I definitely don't understand what effect it may have here!

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Damien McBride's quotes from Twitter are pretty extraordinary (Huff Post article).

 

He was an advisor to Gordon Brown who himself was Chancellor for 10(?) years under Tony Blair. Whatever your politics, he must have a good idea of what's happening in world markets. To start advising people to stockpile food and water and to buy gold; not to mention discussing rally points with your family for when the grid goes down! Amazing.

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But Mauser was he serious or was it a case of him taking the p*ss or just winding people up?

 

It does seem a little strange that somebody of such high order (going by your comments on his experience) comes out with such ideas as storing water etc.

 

I have no idea about what's happening here so thank you for drawing my attention to it.

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But Mauser was he serious or was it a case of him taking the p*ss or just winding people up?

 

It does seem a little strange that somebody of such high order (going by your comments on his experience) comes out with such ideas as storing water etc.

 

I have no idea about what's happening here so thank you for drawing my attention to it.

 

Eldon he was being serious. Look at his Twitter feed. It is extraordinary isn't it? Perhaps he went a bit off the rails after the scandal that forced him to resign? (Or perhaps he's right!)

 

Now Larry Summers, former US treasury secretary says "this could be the early stage of something very serious"....

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In a leaflet by the 'Gold Council' they recommended holding 10% of your portfolio in gold.

 

The recent statistics on the website are interesting.

 

http://www.gold.org/reserve-asset-management/statistics

Which is good as I'm sure my wedding ring is worth £20 so I'm well in!

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Buy rice and ammo perhaps ?!? :unsure:

 

Apparently the Americans are buying ammo in bulk - some because they think ammo will be restricted in due course (as a result of legislation brought about due to recent shootings), others, (some who don't even shoot) as 'an investment' in anticipation of price increases ! (yer couldn't make it up!)

 

Without wishing to sound too paranoid - the world looks in a pretty shabby and dangerous place right now

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Without wishing to sound too paranoid - the world looks in a pretty shabby and dangerous place right now

Not one to be paranoid either or open to panic etc. but, to quote Han Solo ' I have a bad feeling about this' :)

 

I am now exposed to the financial market and its workings plus run an oil related company - which sharpens my views, conceptions on things a bit.

 

Some judicial thought and a bit of planning/lay away will not do any harm at this point in time?

 

Terry

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Is China the new Varget?

 

While not wishing to compare these crises (for some) at any serious level,there is one similarity-both are transitional issues,sensibly handled.

 

China's extravagant 10% annual growth is unsustainable (as any developed industrial society has found). Internal share returns of 150% p/a-in part fuelled by political support-are likewise unsustainable. Officially,growth is admitted to have dropped to 7%,though 5% is probably more likely (soos)-still way ahead of Western rates. Much of China's spectacular growth was fuelled by debt financed industrial investment for export (all thaat cheap stuff) and not domestic consumption.

 

What's changed/changeing? Well,market forces. Political attempts to control the market by tthe Chinese Government have been as unsuccessful and expensive-maybe more so- as they were in Europe in the 1990s;burnt fingers are a contributor to learning curves-economic succes can boom and crash-and in world terms is not controllable by one economy. (some have put China's debt as 250% of it's GNP,though China has pretty good reserves too-maybe $3.6tn).

Middle income ('class' if you must) demand is growing-again the classic scenario,and it is for quality imported goods ( providing these becomes a political issue too,for a government that wants to remain). Western economies also need much more trade with China,to balance the massive (cheap) exports-though these will get less cheap as production costs and maybe quality imcrease.

 

OK -it's a transitional time for the Chinese ecomomy/political strategists-double digit growth (fuelled by cheap exports and debt investment) is gone,and needs to be replaced by a balanced growth,with increased quality domestic consumption (imports,partly).

There is still massive overcapacity in eg steel and concrete production,with at least a short term negative legacy of over capacity and largely unoccupied urbanisation- city industrial jobs are becoming less easily had.Some of this is from the meeting of short term goals by government officials,bent on personal promotion. None of this is nprecedented,though China's scale is,at least in recent times.

Of course this has global effects- lowered raw product demand,and fuel consumption (cf oil prices).But the problem,like the cheap exports,is squarely stamped "Made in China" and the solutions begin there,both ecomomic and ,inexricably,political (as ever). Less state control and a growth target of maybe 3% might allow some domestic and global market stabilisation. A few major Western companies are quite bullish-Boeing for example see an inevitable growth in essentially 'tourist' travel by air,which they hope to oblige.

 

OK,if you are off to the hills with a full tank of cheaper fuel,and rice based menues for this bank holiday,don't make it permanent yet. There may well be a not too dissimilar life style to our current one 'after China'-though there may be lots more temporary immigrants around the touristy spots in the foreseeabl future (yes,I know-look what happened to the Med resorts,and our traffic-that was our industrial revolution's legacy,and one we tend to accept).

 

Oh,Varget- turns out not to be Armageddon,after all-supplies are returning to some shelves,even if prices have increased...and many have survived by making a relatively happy transition to alternatives-vive viht!- which has not increased in price (though neither in velocity-that pernicious vanity of the ambitious :-)

 

Have a nice/rice Bank Holiday weekend. Come back. We shall survive.

 

gbal

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