CV-19 Lessons

[Popsbengo]

20 minutes ago, Johnnyha said:

This is incorrect. Track and trace is a method of delaying spread until there is a preventative vaccine. What about New Zealand, Singapore, S. Korea, Iceland et-al?

It is already being accepted that eradication / suppression is not viable strategy By whom? It's strongly suggested that the flu pandemic modelling is not appropriate to SARS

and that lockdown had a very limited impact on the reduction in daily deaths. True, at this point in time due to incompetence and bad luck - but it's getting better.

This 'saving lives' narrative is rubbish Says who and why? What's the alternative - tell granny never mind, just let her die?

the only meaningful thing an individual can do is avoid contact with vulnerable individuals, period. With c.50% of CV19 infections displaying no symptoms, the idea of a TnT approach which relies on identification through symptoms is flawed. Flawed but better than not doing it

It is clear that treatment options are improving, but a preventive vaccine is years away.  Not necessarily, there's much to be excited about, Imperial have a novel vaccine strategy in hand.

and the public / economy have limited tolerance for continuation of methods that are designed to prevent spread. This is very true.  

Long term all of the signs point to CV19 responses being a combination of treatment and mild infection risk mitigation steps. Possibly but TnT is part of that

The app is a distraction from the inevitable, and the IFR will decrease over time as a result of these factors, and the mortality of the vulnerable who have already been exposed.  Disagree with this overly pessimistic view

 If you would kindly point me to your references I'd be glad to update my knowledge.

 

[Popsbengo]

Just now, Gluv said:

Are you paranoid about the normal flu, or do you just ignore it ? It appears that it's produced about twice the casualties of the normal flu 

2 x 0 ( my concern for regular flu) = 0 

Gluv🇬🇧

Can I have the Wolf in your will please?  I'll definitely look after it and I promise to put my Greenpeace sticker in the window discreetly.

[Johnnyha]

New Zealand, SGP, Iceland - isolated countries with relatively small population and easy to control borders. Also young(er) populations and better public health than UK / US. None of these are international travel hubs as well as international travel destinations.

Suppression strategy discussions - https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/covid-19-containment-suppression-strategy/

Lockdown impact - look at the Bristol study - daily death rates peaked at a point where peak infection would be 17.5 days prior, but lockdown started 14 days prior to the peak. In short, the daily infection rate had started to fall before lockdown started.

Saving lives - certain things do (isolating the vulnerable, treatment in hospital) other things don't (lockdown).

I wouldn't place much faith in Imperial given their track record on this.

Have a look at the IFR discussions at https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus - IFR will always vary between countries for various reasons, but ultimately the trend for a new virus is for it to reduce over time. Vaccines can be part of this, but whilst it's something that people want to succeed, the likelihood of a successful preventative vaccine seems low given other COVIDs and high mutation rate

[Popsbengo]

Just now, Gluv said:

As long as you promise not to pull any statues down with the winch . We don't need your lefty chums to be mechanised 🙂

Gluv🇬🇧

I promise 😉  Wolfy will be cherished (you can leave the Charlie T in the glove box)

I don't know why you think I'm a lefty (obvs left of your good self).  Middle of the road democrat.  At least I'm balanced I've got right wing and left wing mates.

[Popsbengo]

2 minutes ago, Gluv said:

You're very well known amongst our circles as a Euro loving lefty 😂

Gluv🇬🇧

Oh , I will leave the Charlie T in the BV minus the water obviously 😉

 

What a mate!

[Johnnyha]

Looks like the centralised data store approach has been dropped - https://www.macrumors.com/2020/06/18/uk-contact-tracing-app-apple-google-api/

[Private Marker]

I heard that on the radio. It also said that the NHS app could barely find iPhones, and only found 75% of android. Now it looks like they will be going with an apple/Google developed app.

Yay! Not just the gov having a rummage through my phone, but also two of the most intrusive multi nationals too. What could possibly go wrong......

For the record, I am fully behind track and trace. I just don't see the point of involving (in this case) unreliable gimmicky technology. Added to which, giving the government and multi nationals access to my details is a big no no.

[meles meles]

Is it a case of  "First they came for the sneezers?"

[Popsbengo]

3 minutes ago, Gluv said:

And then they came for me . But there was nobody left to speak out ?

I suppose the modern version should be

.First they came for the white heterosexual 

Gluv😐🇬🇧

Yep, those 'woke' PC types are sooo scary  - they could jab you with a rolled-up Guardian (except they're pacifists).  Or do you mean our right-wing government ? Surely not..