CV-19 Lessons

[PhilM]

So, planning....

I’m betting nobody was exactly geared up for this! Anyone find their previous preparation stand them in good stead?

Are the morons of society behaving as expected?

Any thoughts for the future?

[brown dog]

In terms of planning, I think the critical thing missed nationally has been the timing of decision points.   I'm lucky enough, a million years ago, to have done a biological sciences degree which included a wee bit of microbiology and study of disease, so our trajectory was obvious to me once Italy was 'breached'.   I was horrified by the muppetry coming out of Boris and Witty at this point, laissez faire rubbish - to the point that I'd question Witty's judgement - and made my own calls.  I was predicting April peak back when Witty et al were talking sh1te about herd immunity and July peaks.

It led to some good-humoured lively discussions at work, most were stuck in 'it's just Johnny foreigner- those emotional eyties and dagoes- it won't be like that here, we're British'  , even when I was showing them data (which I was tracking) that we were accelerating faster than Italy. (Sadly, all have since had to eat humble pie as my read-out came to pass).

Other DPs were there to read, if looking.  I gave pals a heads-up that panic buying was 'just around the corner' on 3 March. Some listened; others stuck with muttering about eyties and 'it's just flu'.

Gosh, what a rant... bottom line: Planning isn't just about the plan, it's about anticipating required decisions, and making them at the right time.

[Ronin]

And you were absolutely on the Ball Matt..

 

Something id never thought id say😂

[brown dog]

1 minute ago, Ronin said:

And you were absolutely on the Ball Matt..

 

Something id never thought id say😂

 

😂  wish I hadn't been !!

[Popsbengo]

I actually read the National & Local Gov. Risk Register and Local Contingency Plans along with the NHS Flu pandemic plans back in the Jurassic period when I was in a position of authority (the fools!) at a large car manufacturer.  Myself and the rather enlightened Head of Security (believe me, that's rare) tried to engage the company in contingency planning for such an event but we were not taken seriously.

How's that working for you Mr CEO?

One issue that was predicted, as yet (hope never) come to pass, and that's a national fuel shortage due to deliveries failing.  I have 'some' jerry cans of diesel and keep the truck topped up.  It's a good idea to swap out the diesel annually as it looses cetane rating in storage.

Upshot is, like Brown Dog, I have kept a food & essentials store for some years now - minimum of 30 days for two at recommended calories (could be eked out to 45 days), not including what's in the larder & freezer.  Even had some bog roll!  I too was clearly mad in the eyes of some.   He who laughs last etc.

Oh, and one last piece of advice, that I've just blown myself, don't tell anyone about your store especially neighbours who can be assholes 😉

And, should Zombies emerge, I have a surprise for them 😂🤣

[ds1]

There will be both reactive and proactive planning. Medically the government is always going to be behind the curve without a well fitting model to act as a guide - but all respect to companies like Dyson etc and people for volunteering to help however they can.

Proactive in the sense that each region has a police gold  team cv 19 commander in place  and army supporting all emergency services. There will be models in place for social controls, restrictions and lockdowns- your not seeing riots like in other countries - bottom line if you can stop food shortages then you can stop rioting.

 I am Czech based - surprisingly people have accepted very similar conditions / restraints to the U.K. and possibly tighter with some towns in total lockdown and compulsory wearing of face mask in public. Maybe a throwback to a former communist era but I am not sensing “social tensions”. 

On a positive note be thankful that it’s not an Ebola virus with 80% fatality and be thankful Corbyn is not the PM.

[brown dog]

5 hours ago, Popsbengo said:

And, should Zombies emerge, I have a surprise for them 😂🤣

 I've nothing to add to that publicly 😂

 

[geek]

6 hours ago, ds1 said:

On a positive note be thankful that it’s not an Ebola virus with 80% fatality and be thankful Corbyn is not the PM.

I couldn't agree more, especially the second point!

[terryh]

10 hours ago, Ronin said:

And you were absolutely on the Ball Matt..

 

Something id never thought id say😂

You know he’s going to be unliveable now, don’t you!! 😫 😂

[terryh]

Personally had a bit of a ramp up before it became silly so a few weeks in hand.

Initial rush seems over and you can go and do a shop, still things like flour missing.

 

[ds1]

If there is a lesson from this - then prep at national level is what will save lives. S Korea got hit with SARS 1, since then they have had PP supplies, ventilators and social / travel protocols in place to deal with further outbreaks. They have managed well in this crisis. 
 

On a personal level some of the less glam stuff can help - there are simple face mask patterns on the internet - our daughters have been sewing them up from old clothes - it does not help you against getting the virus but it can stop you transmitting it in droplet form. ( I have yet to convince the family that S12 mask are the way forward ).

[Re-Pete]

Better still, simply don't get that close to anyone............our local shops/supermarkets are making a 2 metre separation between customers mandatory.

One out, and one in............takes time, but who's counting? And where are all the eggs and flour??

Pete

[Bob57]

I was being offered lots of partridge and pheasants in the game shooting season, and decided to buy another freezer to put in a shed to keep taking what was being offered😃😃, didn't know what was just around the corner!!!.

Bet all those guns not taking any birds home are kicking themselves now😂.

 

 

[VarmLR]

One thing we seem to have used a lot at home which we never had before because we take too much for granted, is a UVC cabinet into which post, the odd bit of shopping and anything else we may need to sterilise from time to time goes in.  It's used most days presently.

We also keep more hand cream around as with more washing of hands it's essential to keep skin moisturised.  I was the typical macho type to begin with until my own hands started cracking and bleeding, now I realise I was just being an idiot.

The really disappointing thing is when this all kicked off, people around here (can't speak for anywhere else) behaved like selfish animals, hoarding so much that they would normally never have bothered with that shelves were stripped of essentials within a few days of the pandemic being announced here, and during lockdown, things got worse.  We saw families going in together pushing a cart each and filling each one up with the same things depriving those in need of essentials.  The greed and selfishness disappoints more than the government's lack of initial decision making nor anything else happening since.  It's not the government who should be ashamed, it's the general public.

Meantime we haven't been able to buy flour, yeast, some pastas, rice or similar here even up until yesterday as the same arseh@les are not doubt still at it.  Our local appliances outlet nearby sold out of freezers within the first week.  They're now shut anyway.  

Outcome:  The British (probably here I can generalise a bit!) have been their own worst enemies and far from being the caring, responsible society sometimes portrayed, have largely shown themselves to be utterly selfish, greedy, uncaring "I'm all right Jack" types and sod anyone else.  I have to admit as much as I am now tempted to behave the same way, my dignity won't allow it.  Just because some people are like that doesn't mean I have to be unless my family is really put at risk, but this isn't the Third World, and there are towns in Russia where queuing for food and empty shelves is a daily reality even in 2020 out of the pandemic.  The most important lesson that we should take from this as a nation is to re-educate the nation that there's enough to go round of everything so it should become socially unacceptable, just as drink driving is, for people to hoard the way they have.  Most of that no doubt will be wasted when there's people starving and homeless.  People who hoard make me sick.

We have a lot to be grateful for and haven't really gone without much food wise.

One area notably badly prepared is our health system./  Those with pre-existing conditions, such as myself, found ourselves locked out of regular treatment for illnesses or serious chronic injuries for the duration and it's had a massive impact on my life in terms of pain and suffering.  I did eventually get seen after the doctors realised that without treatment I could end up paralysed but boy did it take some pushing on my part!

As far as the contagion goes, yes it's highly infectious beyond a doubt.  As the models V's reality, well recent studies in two American states show quite dramatically that far from being the 3 to 5% mortality predicted, those states from a very large proportion testing positive show a trend of between 0.045% and 0.15% (different states), which appears little different to their normal seasonal flu mortality rates.  I disbelieve most of what the media says on the subject and still don't believe we have anything like enough reliable data in the UK to suggest we're any different as for all we know, we've all had it or a majority have.  That's the good scenario I know, the bad may yet reveal itself in time.  You won't be able to plan for this much better than we have.  The timescale for action was out by a few weeks but would that make any difference to total deaths longer term? Probably not.  It just flattens peaks which helps our beleaguered health system cope better.  I do not trust some of the Globalist agendas at play in all of this nor the UN, nor the statistics portrayed on TV which are wholly unreliable for now.  

[Private Marker]

Sorry but there's no way I would install that track and trace app. Don't care if it sounds paranoid, I don't trust anything to do with the government, even the NHS having access to my phone.

[Popsbengo]

41 minutes ago, Private Marker said:

Sorry but there's no way I would install that track and trace app. Don't care if it sounds paranoid, I don't trust anything to do with the government, even the NHS having access to my phone.

🙁 So you don't think it's a good idea to protect others then?  You could be going around spreading the virus to vulnerable persons but, hey, no worries, your paranoia is fed.

Let's hope your selfish action doesn't inadvertently result in a fatality.

Cue pile on...

[les]

On 5/8/2020 at 9:16 PM, Gluv said:

Pretty sure I had the Virus from Boxing Day onwards. Cough, the most horrendous fever etc. The strangest what I thought was the flu ever .

Gluv🇬🇧

I was exactly the same, and I know a few people who all had the same problem over the Christmas/New Year period. I don't know if it was Covid 19, but I don't know that it wasn't, either.

I'm guessing that Covid 19 has been around for longer than we have been told.   

[Popsbengo]

maybe, or it was flu?

 

[Private Marker]

Of course I think it's a good idea to protect others, I have been doing it since the lockdown. I honestly don't think the app is the way to go, least of all the way the government has structured it. Other apps that have been developed stored info on the phone, the NHS one insists on keeping it in one central location. Aside from that, I come into so few people as it is.

[Re-Pete]

My mobile doesn't do apps................

Pete

[maximus otter]

14 hours ago, Popsbengo said:

🙁 So you don't think it's a good idea to protect others then?  You could be going around spreading the virus to vulnerable persons but, hey, no worries, your paranoia is fed.

Let's hope your selfish action doesn't inadvertently result in a fatality.

Cue pile on...

Pugnacious, rude nonsense.

maximus otter

[Popsbengo]

1 hour ago, maximus otter said:

Pugnacious, rude nonsense.

maximus otter

pugnacious and rude, yes, deservedly so to make a point.  Nonsense no, track and trace is an essential part of stamping out the virus thereby saving lives.  Opting out is selfish and potentially harmful.  

[martin_b]

17 hours ago, Private Marker said:

Sorry but there's no way I would install that track and trace app. Don't care if it sounds paranoid, I don't trust anything to do with the government, even the NHS having access to my phone.

Only points Id make is you're been tracked already, CCTV camera's ANPR camera's  Cookies, GCHQ etc... so i wouldnt let one app bother you.

and also If I needed a marker at Bisley and I could choose between one who had the Ap and one who didnt I know who I'd choose,.

[Private Marker]

1 hour ago, martin_b said:

Only points Id make is you're been tracked already, CCTV camera's ANPR camera's  Cookies, GCHQ etc... so i wouldnt let one app bother you.

and also If I needed a marker at Bisley and I could choose between one who had the Ap and one who didnt I know who I'd choose,.

There's nothing I can do about  ANPR and cctv, so that doesn't bother me. No point in being bothered about something I can't change.

I just listened to the track and trace ad on the radio. It doesn't stress the app. It's humans that do the tracking and tracing. The app itself is only a part of it. If it was entirely the app, what about the people who don't have a smart phone?  Aside from this, the app itself may not be available until next year as it's not yet perfected.

As for choosing a private marker who had the app, I would have thought the ability to accurately mark a target would've been the main factor. At least one of my clients never turns his mobile on. So having an app would be neither here nor there, assumiing his phone could handle the app. 

Would you not want to be on the next firing point as somebody without the app? Or is it only markers without the app you don't want to deal with? What about the NRA markers? How would find out if they had the app?

As I said the app hasn't been perfected yet,  so it's not like it's essential, important or even relevant is it?

[Johnnyha]

2 hours ago, Popsbengo said:

pugnacious and rude, yes, deservedly so to make a point.  Nonsense no, track and trace is an essential part of stamping out the virus thereby saving lives.  Opting out is selfish and potentially harmful.  

This is incorrect. Track and trace is a method of delaying spread until there is a preventative vaccine. It is already being accepted that eradication / suppression is not viable strategy, and that lockdown had a very limited impact on the reduction in daily deaths. This 'saving lives' narrative is rubbish - the only meaningful thing an individual can do is avoid contact with vulnerable individuals, period. With c.50% of CV19 infections displaying no symptoms, the idea of a TnT approach which relies on identification through symptoms is flawed.

It is clear that treatment options are improving, but a preventive vaccine is years away, and the public / economy have limited tolerance for continuation of methods that are designed to prevent spread. Long term all of the signs point to CV19 responses being a combination of treatment and mild infection risk mitigation steps. The app is a distraction from the inevitable, and the IFR will decrease over time as a result of these factors, and the mortality of the vulnerable who have already been exposed.